The Government of the Russian Federation approved the program for the development of air transport until 2030. According to the final version of the document, airlines must carry 22% more passengers than previously planned. The forecast for the aircraft industry, on which, according to the drafters of the document, the success of the industry depends, has been kept at the same level. The government plans to invest 770 billion rubles in the industry.
According to the final, approved by the government, version of the program for the development of the air transport industry until 2030, 92 .9 million passengers in 2025 and about 104.5 million passengers in 2030.
In the original version of the document, which experts already positioned as quite positive, with the same algorithm for the development of events according to the base scenario, 76.3 million passengers were expected in 2025 and about 92.2 million passengers in 2030. Thus, the government improved its own forecast by 22%.
INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC WILL DROP FIVE TIMES FROM DOCOVID
With regard to the forecasts given in the Program for International Air Transportation, the expected volume under the target (baseline) scenario is 10.3 million passengers in 2025 and about 11.6 million passengers in 2030.
This is in five times less than in pre-Covid 2019. And more than two times less than in 2021, when Russian airlines served 23.5 million passengers in this segment.
“Due to the high degree of uncertainty of geopolitical factors and the priority of ensuring transportation on domestic airlines (in accordance with the objectives of developing the Program), the estimated forecast of air transportation on international airlines was developed based on the actual situation and the route network as of April 2022,” the statement said. document.
The airline industry is already losing significant volumes, though mostly due to reduced international passenger traffic.
Thus, according to the preliminary data of the Association of Air Transport Operators (AET), in general, in January-May 2022, domestic airlines served 31.57 million passengers against 32.96 in the same period last year, that is, 4.2% less.
However, it should be taken into account that such an “insignificant” lag is achieved solely due to the fact that in January-February, the performance indicators of domestic air carriers on international routes were steadily growing.
In particular, the number of air carriers transported passengers in January-February increased by almost 40% compared to the first months of 2021 – against the background of the lifting of covid restrictions.
EXPERTS DO NOT EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS OF DOMESTIC AIR TRAFFIC THIS YEAR
According to expert estimates, at the moment, the total volume of traffic (both domestic and international) lagging behind last year's figures for Russian aviation is about 20%.
And analysts do not give forecasts for improving the situation – it is expected that by the end of the year the situation will remain approximately at the current level (that is, domestic transportation will not show a significant increase).
It should be noted that, starting from April 2022, the aviation market has to be content with expert and estimated data – the Federal Air Transport Agency has ceased to publish statistical data.
Therefore, it seems difficult now to calculate what the true dynamics of individual domestic air transportation is. The Program approved by the government also does not say what exactly the “domestic Russian” optimism of the compilers of the air transport development program is based on.
EXPERTS ARE FEAR THAT THE PROGRAM DESIGNERS DIDN'T TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE ECONOMY
It is important to take into account that both in the original and in the current version of the document, the optimistic indicators of domestic passenger traffic are calculated solely on the basis of the technical capabilities of the industry.
The document says the following in this regard: “The risks of implementing the program are primarily related to problems of operation of the existing fleet of aircraft during the transition period and the pace of delivery of new aircraft of domestic production.
Systemic risks affecting key performance indicators include:
- retirement of the existing aircraft fleet due to difficulties with maintenance and spare parts supply arrangements;
- failure to meet the delivery schedule of domestic aviation technology;
- shortage of personnel for the production, operation and maintenance of new or newly produced types of aircraft;
- external risks (deterioration of the economic situation, geopolitical situation and other external factors).
But the socio-economic situation is not taken into account. Simply put, the government has not taken into account the scenario in which passengers will reduce their expenses on air travel.
Although most experts in the aviation industry are positioning the worsening economic situation as one of the main factors affecting the market.
Moreover, as we wrote earlier, in this matter you should not even be guided by the data of this year – now people fly and rest on the money that they accumulated before the crisis. Therefore, even the current -20% of the dock volumes is still the economic result of the previous 3-6 months, and not the current situation.
THE TECHNICAL EQUIPMENT FORECAST OF THE INDUSTRY REMAINS THE SAME
“Technical” forecast government has not changed in comparison with the first version of the document.
In 2022-2030, 1,036 aircraft are to be delivered for the needs of civil aviation. Among them:
- 142 SSJ-NEW aircraft
- 270 MS-21-310 aircraft
- 70 Il-114-300 aircraft
- 70 Tu-214 aircraft
- 12 Il-96-300 aircraft
- 140 TVRS-44 Ladoga aircraft
- 178 L-410 aircraft
- 154 LMS-901 Baikal aircraft
“It is planned to supply 20 units per year of SSJ aircraft from 2024 -NEW, and the MC-21 aircraft program provides for the supply of 72 units per year from 2029 with the start of deliveries of the first 6 aircraft in 2024.
In addition, a large volume of deliveries of small-sized aircraft (TVRS-44 Ladoga; L-410; LMS-901 Baikal) is envisaged – 20-25 aircraft annually starting from 2026,” the document says.
< p> That is, in the same way as it was intended in the original version of the Program.
TOUR OPERATORS WILL BE CONNECTED TO INCREASE PASSENGER FLOW
Where should the additional 22% of passengers come from, if the only important technical issue in this matter the component has not changed – neither the document nor the message to it on the government website says.
At the same time, as it became known earlier, the aviation authorities of the Russian Federation will involve tour operators in the case – their representatives have already joined the profile working group and made their proposals on possible ways to increase passenger traffic.
The government plans to spend more than 770 billion rubles to support the aviation industry. At the same time, over 150 billion of them, necessary to ensure air transportation, will enter the industry by the end of 2022, according to the government website.