airlines with Turkish counterparts were published today in the aviation media. The carriers received a warning about the risk of ending the service of Russian aircraft from the handling company Havaş. We figured out what consequences this could lead to.

The specialized aviation telegram channel published today, February 1, a letter from the Turkish handling company Havaş to Russian airlines. In the document, partners are asked not to fly to them on 170 sanctioned aircraft containing more than 25% of US-made parts.

WHO IS THREATENED AND WHO IS NOT THREATENED BY TURKISH RESTRICTIONS

In fact, the restriction, even if happen, may have the greatest impact on the flights of the Aeroflot group – in the sanctions list, mainly its aircraft. In addition, so far we are talking about the application of only one handler, and Russian companies in Turkey have the opportunity to use the services of other suppliers as well. Which did not make such a requirement.

Finally, Russian carriers also have boards that even meet the conditions of their Turkish partner. In particular, the same Aeroflot withdrew from the Bermuda register and operates on international lines 8 wide-body Airbus A-330s, as well as several A320/321s. It is difficult to establish the exact number of aircraft available for flights due to the presence of a clarification about “American components” in the aircraft. Havaş just asked the Russian partners to prepare such a list. And here, too, you can “play”: it is difficult to count all the details in aircraft, and in the end, you can make a mistake.

Rossiya, Red Wings and Azimuth airlines operate SSJ-100s, which have minimal risk fall under the declared sanctions.

It is also important that a significant amount of transportation to Turkey by tour operators falls on Turkish carriers Turkish Airlines, Corendon, Pegasus, Southwind, which are not subject to sanctions, the sides of which the tour operators divided among themselves and used as “joint charters”.

WHY THE AVIATORS OF THE TWO COUNTRIES RETURNED TO THE DISCUSSION OF A YEAR-OLD SANCTIONS

It is noteworthy that the sanctions of the US Department of Commerce have been in force since the spring of 2022. But aviation cooperation between Russia and Turkey has since become complicated due to the actions of third countries, but still remained quite large-scale – in the summer, in some periods, up to 750 flights a week were operated between Russian and Turkish cities.

The same warning from Havaş has recently become the second message reminding Russian aviators of the existence of restrictions.

Some aviation market experts associate its appearance not only and not so much with the foreign policy situation (although it undoubtedly has a significant influence). And to a greater extent – with the approaching date for considering the possibility of increasing quotas for flights between Russia and Turkey.

Now, according to an intergovernmental agreement, up to 118 flights can be operated per week on a parity basis between Russia and Turkey. During the high tourist season, due to mutual economic interest, governments separately agree to increase the frequency of flights for charter flights.

In particular, some ATOR Vestnik interlocutors indicate that in 2022, Turkish airlines at the beginning of the season , when Russian colleagues could not satisfy the growing demand for air transportation on their own, they received more frequencies within these additional quotas.

This provided significant support to the tourism sector and allowed tourists to fly on vacation, but caused active dissatisfaction with the aviation authorities, who unequivocally insist on the need for “strict parity”. By autumn, the proportion has already changed, approaching it – domestic airlines have registered more aircraft in Russia.

AVIATION WILL NOT BENEFITS AND TOURISTS WILL LOSE FROM MUTUAL RESTRICTIONS

Sources familiar with the moods of the Turkish and Russian aviation authorities are sure that if Turkey moves from words to deeds and stops servicing part of Russian flights (for example, refueling them), then the Russian aviation authorities will not put the brakes on this situation. And they will not consider increasing the quota for Turkish airlines either.

This situation, of course, will in no way mean a halt in air traffic between Russia and Turkey, but in this case, part of the Russian aircraft will not fly to Turkey, and Turkish airlines will not increase their quotas either. The situation will come to a standstill: both Turkish and Russian carriers will not gain anything from this state of affairs – the Russian aviation authorities will definitely not expand the quota for Turkish partners without the possibility for Russian airlines to fly to this country.

And it will suffer from this , first of all, the consumer – a decrease in the number of flights will entail a proportional rise in the cost of air tickets, including as part of tour packages. The shortage of tours to Turkey will increase. The middle and budget segment will be finally lost, part of the wealthy tourists will choose not Turkey, but other countries for their vacation. In addition, the tourism business of both countries will also suffer losses.

Obviously, in this situation, the Turkish authorities will have to intervene in the situation with commercial relations between Turkish handlers and Russian airlines – when it is necessary in the interests of the country (and tourism from Russia is a matter of strategic importance), the Turkish government is influencing private business, and quite successfully.

Ekaterina Tropova